A carbon-constrained world 

Mitigating climate change will be the most daunting challenge of this century. Fortunately, years of effort and calls to action by environmental experts and other specialists are making an impact on popular attitudes. Less fortunately, most of us still grope in the dark trying to find a credible framework to structure an adequate response. 

Much faith has been placed in market-based solutions such as carbon-emissions trading. But while such measures may lead to curbing - even reducing - emissions in developed countries, they will almost certainly fall flat in developing countries, especially the fast-growing economies of China and India, where 40 per cent of the global population lives. 

The reality of such measures is that the rich nations demand sacrifices of people who are scratching a miserable living. Even in booming China, almost half the population, more than the entire US or European population, still struggles to get by on US$2 or less a day. No government, democratic or otherwise, will adopt complex global trading schemes run by foreign interests and risk dashing their people’s economic aspirations. 

But laying blame elsewhere or invoking inequities to defend inaction will not change the fact that relentless consumption - on the march in every corner of the world - can only increase the use of fossil fuels. We must look for other answers. 

One such area which has received almost no attention to date is the behaviour of the world’s principal fossil-fuel producers. These can be divided in various ways - between principal crude-oil producers and exporters including Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, plus Russia, Mexico, Canada and Venezuela, and the principal coal producers and exporters, including China, the United States, India, Russia, Australia and Indonesia. 

These can also be divided another way - between those with high per-capita carbon-dioxide emissions and those with low emissions. 

Unsurprisingly, those with high emissions are also rich - the US, Australia and Canada plus the wealthy states of the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait. 

Put simply, among the wealthy members of the world’s core group of fossil-fuel producers are the world’s worst carbon-dioxide producers. Other countries may be rich, but tend to use far less fossil fuels and energy per capita: Japan, for example, the world’s second largest economy, ranks 32nd in terms of per-capita emissions, far below the world’s largest economy, while the US, ranks 10th, with the top nine positions dominated by small rich nations. 

While the populations of these countries combined amount to less than 10 per cent of the world population, their per-capita carbon-dioxide emissions range from five to 20 times that of the world’s poorer countries, including China and India. 

These countries have a responsibility - moral and environmental - to cut emissions. They should commit to reducing per-capita emissions by half as soon as possible and strive for the current global average, given that some leading scientists predict the world already approaches the safety threshold of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. 

This is not a pipe dream. Japan’s per-capita emissions - 9.8 tons - are half those of the US and Canada’s total of 20 tons, and a quarter of the UAE and Kuwait’s total of 38 tons. 

Sadly, we see the opposite behavior, with excesses unfolding in places like the UAE, with extreme urban development embracing indoor ski slopes to underwater hotels. 

And inhabitants of the western Australian city of Perth, on the back of a resources boom, now have the largest “ecological footprint” per capita, 9 hectares per person, of any city in the world. The ecological footprint is defined as the economic, social and environmental costs associated with resource consumption, land use and impacts on the bio-sphere. 

Such extravagance is possible only because of super-cheap energy and unrestrained resource exploitation. In Abu Dhabi, electricity costs 3 cents per kilowatt hour - compared to 40 cents in Europe - and petrol, at 30 cents a litre, is cheaper than water. 

So while it’s often said that environmental damage and poor decisions on sustainability are due to the lack of funding as governments make a trade-off with the need for economic growth - the truth is the exact opposite. 

It isn’t China or India that should be seen as the worst culprits when it comes to climate change, but some of the world’s richest states - which also happen to be well-endowed with fossil-fuel resources.

We need to remind these energy-producing countries that they have a responsibility to strike a balance between their desire to keep driving economic growth and an awareness that decisions taken today may well compromise the ability of others and future generations to share in the common good. 

On a domestic level, these rich energy producers must make dramatic changes in the way they view environmental protection and sustainable-development initiatives. This means pricing oil and other energy sources properly within their own borders and curbing excessive use. 

Limits can be achieved only by tough and even draconian regulatory policies enforced by individual countries. Measures could include the use of creative financial instruments implemented locally to incentivise carbon reduction and thereby also allow for deployment of appropriate technology. 

And on an international level, these producers must assume greater responsibility towards the stewardship of their resources. Yes, oil and other fossil fuels have been key to the world’s economic growth over the last two centuries, but simultaneously it has taken us to the brink of climatic disaster. 

Given that the main producer nations do not need to generate more wealth from energy exports to sustain their populations, a limit on exports would be a prudent way to discourage rampant consumption globally. It would also encourage those that need more energy for economic growth to focus on greater efficiency and developing alternative sources, including nuclear energy. 

Taking the “producer responsibility” principle one step further - especially at a time when oil prices keep hitting new record highs - we should also require energy producers to put part of their fossil-fuel revenues towards aggressively developing and commercialising technologies to reduce emissions, capture carbon dioxide and even make renewables such as hydro, wind and solar as well as nuclear energy viable alternatives for global use. 

Such initiatives must move beyond embracing the gimmicks around sustainability such as the public-relations blitz surrounding the pursuit of carbon-neutral cities in the Gulf countries or emissions-trading schemes of Europe and the US. 

Channeling funds to global-sustainability initiatives could occur by implementing a global tax on key producers, for creating a fund that would support development of cost-effective, efficient, clean forms of energy. 

Other uses for the fund could include implementing conservation measures in poor countries or even addressing chronic problems of underdevelopment - a much better use of excess wealth than building futuristic cities or snow resorts in the desert. 

The Gulf nations, the US, Canada and Australia should take the lead in supporting, creating and managing this fund with the help of wealthy nations such as Japan and the EU. 

Acting together, these energy-producer nations have the financial muscle to make a huge difference - and can go a long way towards helping the world put together an overall framework to coordinate responses from around the world and allow us to stop thinking in a piecemeal fashion. The threat of climate change can be justified in both a just and effective manner. 

Chandran Nair is founder and CEO of the Global Institute for Tomorrow. 

Source: ScienceAlert, August 04, 2008
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Greenpeace cites rising e-waste in Africa

DAKAR, Senegal (AP) — Greenpeace called on the world's electronics companies Tuesday to eliminate hazardous chemicals from their products, saying toxic waste from wealthy nations' gadgets ends up being dumped in poor countries despite laws prohibiting it.

The environmental watchdog made the appeal in a new report on the electronic waste trade, which it said was spreading from Asia to West Africa — particularly Ghana, where discarded TVs and computers that contain toxic materials are being dismantled by children as young as 5.

"Unless companies eliminate all hazardous chemicals from their electronic products and take responsibility for the entire life cycle of their products, this poisonous dumping will continue," said Martin Hojsik, a Greenpeace campaigner. "Electronics companies must not allow their products to end up poisoning the poor around the world."

Many of the old computers, monitors and television sets that end up in Ghana come from the European Union, despite laws there prohibiting the export of such hazardous materials, Greenpeace said. In particular, the report cited shipments from Germany, Switzerland and the Netherlands — as well as Korea.

The materials are exported as "second hand goods" and purportedly meant to be reusable. But the report, citing a EU official, said most of these goods imported into Africa are broken and cannot be used again.

In Ghana, the discarded waste is dismantled at scrap yards, where it is crushed or burned to separate plastics from more valuable metals like aluminum or copper, a process that pollutes the environment and exposes workers to toxic fumes.

A Greenpeace team visited two main waste sites in Ghana — one in the capital and another in the smaller city of Korforidua. Soil samples analyzed at Britain's University of Exeter contained phthalates, which are suspected of causing reproductive problems, and lead. The report noted that while the EU officially prohibits such exports, the United States does not.

Leading computer makers, including Dell Inc., Hewlett-Packard Co. and Apple Inc., have launched or expanded recycling programs in recent years. But overall, environmental groups and government regulators have said that a small percentage of electronics are actually being submitted for recycling.

Source: syracuse.com, August 05, 2008
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A How-To Manual for Large Cities to Build Climate Resilience

With eight of the world’s 10 largest cities located near rivers or seas and exposed to such climate hazards as flooding, sea level rise, and hurricanes, a United Nations-World Bank report released today offers advice on how to make these population centers more resistant to the effects of global warming. 

"Climate Resilient Cities" is intended as a primer for East Asia and the Pacific to curb vulnerability to climate change and strengthen disaster risk management in the face of the frequent and extreme weather events expected as the planet's temperature climbs. 

"Ultimately, the cities hardest hit by climate change will be the ones least prepared," said Neeraj Prasad, the World Bank’s lead environmental specialist for the region. 

Jointly produced by the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, the World Bank and its Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, the report urges managers to protect their cities sooner rather than later.

With an estimated population of 13.6 million, India's financial capital Mumbai, formerly Bombay, is the world's largest city.

Located at the mouth of Ulhas River on India's Arabian Sea coast, Mumbai is among the cities most vulnerable to global warming and rising sea levels, says a 2007 study published by the Institute for Environment and Development. 

Mumbai was listed along with Tokyo, New York, Shanghai, Jakarta and Dhaka as cities where millions are at risk of heavy storms and flooding. 

"Ninety percent of disasters are already weather-related, and more intense and frequent hurricanes and floods are predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, says Salvano Briceño, director of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. "We cannot wait. We already have the tools to reduce the impact of climate-related hazards and we need to use them now." 

Briceño points to the Hyogo Framework for Action adopted by 168 governments in Hyogo, Japan in 2005 as a tool that offers practical and efficient measures to reduce the impact of disasters, including extreme climate events. 

These measures include not building houses in floodplains or close to coastal areas and instead building on higher ground with resilient materials able to sustain the force of winds and water pressure. 

Protecting critical infrastructures such as schools, hospitals and roads; and building early warning systems and shelters for people who must evacuate are some of the common sense measures included in the Hyogo Framework. 

Briceño urged governments to start sourcing adequate funds for adaptation to climate change, as many vulnerable countries will be unable to pay for adaptation out of their own budgets. 

The UN points to estimates predicting that for every one meter (39 inch) rise in sea levels, there will be a corresponding two percent drop in a country's Gross Domestic Product due to the decrease in fresh water, damage to agriculture and fisheries, disrupted tourism and reduced energy security, among other consequences. 

The concentration of people in cities increases their susceptibility to damage from the warming climate. The study finds that East Asia is one of the world’s most vulnerable areas. 

"We have seen events like the 2004 tsunami, and recently Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar and a typhoon in the Philippines," said Jitendra Shah, who coordinates the World Bank’s environmental program in Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia and Thailand. 

The report advises cities to strategize now to adapt to future climate change and to slash greenhouse gas emissions. 

Some of the recommended measures are simple, such as raising awareness of global warming’s impact, promoting the use of bicycles and increasing the use of energy-efficient public transport vehicles. 

Other measures entail legislation and increased investment, such as providing alternatives to fossil fuels and improving public infrastructure. 

"Every city is different," said Prasad. "There is no cookie-cutter solution to climate change impacts. It’s important that you are able to anticipate the likely impacts on your city and make the decision to deal with that." 

Seeking to lead by example in addressing climate change, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has initiated a "Cool UN" policy to reduce energy consumption and the shrink the carbon footprint of United Nations Headquarters building in New York City. 

Lauched on July 30, the campaign will reduce the use of air conditioning, cut greenhouse gas emissions and save money by raising the temperature of the headquarters building by 5° F. 

During a month-long trial period in August, the thermostats would be turned up from 72° F (22.2° C) to 77° F (25° C) in most parts of the Secretariat building and from 70° F (21.1° C) to 75° F (23.9° C) in the conference rooms, UN officials said. 

Accompanied by a relaxed business casual dress code, the UN will shut down the buildings’ heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems on weekends. 

The initiative is expected to save about 4.4 billion pounds of steam during the month of August, or the equivalent of 300 tons of carbon dioxide in terms of greenhouse gas emissions - equal to a 10 percent reduction in energy consumption. It is expected to produce cash savings of $100,000. In winter, the process could be reversed, with a 5° F reduction in thermostat settings. The campaign is expected to reduce emissions by 2,800 tons of carbon dioxide annually. 

Secretary-General Ban hopes the initiative will encourage staff to explore other innovative ideas for making the United Nations a model in the global fight against climate change. 

Source: ENS, August 06, 2008
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Climate change: Prepare for global temperature rise of 4C
warns top scientistDefra's chief adviser says we need strategy to adapt to potential catastrophic increaseJames Randerson, science correspondent, James Randerson 

The UK should take active steps to prepare for dangerous climate change of perhaps 4C according to one of the government's chief scientific advisers. 

In policy areas such as flood protection, agriculture and coastal erosion Professor Bob Watson said the country should plan for the effects of a 4C global average rise on pre-industrial levels. The EU is committed to limiting emissions globally so that temperatures do not rise more than 2C.

"There is no doubt that we should aim to limit changes in the global mean surface temperature to 2C above pre-industrial," Watson, the chief scientific adviser to the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, told the Guardian. "But given this is an ambitious target, and we don't know in detail how to limit greenhouse gas emissions to realise a 2 degree target, we should be prepared to adapt to 4C." Globally, a 4C temperature rise would have a catastrophic impact. 

According to the government's 2006 Stern review on the economics of climate change, between 7 million and 300 million more people would be affected by coastal flooding each year, there would be a 30-50% reduction in water availability in Southern Africa and the Mediterranean, agricultural yields would decline 15 to 35% in Africa and 20 to 50% of animal and plant species would face extinction.

In the UK, the most significant impact would be rising sea levels and inland flooding. Climate modellers also predict there would be an increase in heavy rainfall events in winter and drier summers. 

Watson's plea to prepare for the worst was backed up by the government's former chief scientific adviser, Sir David King. He said that even with a comprehensive global deal to keep carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere at below 450 parts per million there is a 50% probability that temperatures would exceed 2C and a 20% probability they would exceed 3.5C. 

"So even if we get the best possible global agreement to reduce greenhouse gasses on any rational basis you should be preparing for a 20% risk so I think Bob Watson is quite right to put up the figure of 4 degrees," he said.

One big unknown is the stage at which dangerous tipping points would be reached that lead to further warming - for example the release of methane hydrate deposits in the Arctic. "My own feeling is that if we get to a 4 degree rise it is quite possible that we would begin to see a runaway increase," said King.

He said a two-and-half-year analysis by the government's Foresight programme on the implications for coastal defences had more impact in the corridors of power than any other research on the effects of climate change that he presented. 

"No other single factor focussed the minds of the cabinet more than the analysis that I produced through that ... We begin to have to talk about ordered retreat from some areas of Britain because it becomes impossible to defend," he said. "There's no choice here between adaptation and mitigation, we have to do both."

Other experts were concerned that Watson's comments might be seen as defeatist and an admission that emissions reductions were impossible to achieve. 

"At 4 degrees we are basically into a different climate regime," said Prof Neil Adger, an expert on adaptation to climate change at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in Norwich. 

"I think that is a dangerous mindset to be in. Thinking through the implications of 4 degrees of warming shows that the impacts are so significant that the only real adaptation strategy is to avoid that at all cost because of the pain and suffering that is going to cost.

"There is no science on how we are going to adapt to 4 degrees warming. It is actually pretty alarming," he added.

Speaking to the Guardian, Watson, who is a former science adviser to President Clinton and ex-chief scientist at the World Bank, said the UK should take a lead in research on carbon capture and storage (CCS). 

Alluding to the US effort in the 1960s to put a man on the moon he advocated an "Apollo-type programme" to introduce 10 to 20 CCS pilot projects - which work by burying carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels underground - among OECD countries to develop the technology. 

"This would allow coal-fired power plants that are currently being built to be modular and capable of having carbon capture retrofitted, and would show the world that we take the issue of climate change seriously, thus demonstrating real leadership. Without this technology we have a real problem."

He also said as coal burning is cleaned up to remove harmful sulphur pollution climate change would actually get worse. The sulphur aerosols are actually preventing some warming from taking place currently. 

"This offsetting effect, which is equivalent to about 100 parts per million of carbon dioxide, will largely disappear if China and India follow the lead of the US and Europe in limiting sulphur emissions, the cause of acid deposition," he said.

Source: Guardian, August 07, 2008
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Scientists Link Warmer Temperatures to Rainfall Extremes

The link between a warmer climate and more powerful rainstorms has been confirmed by scientists using both computer models and satellite observations gathered over a period of 20 years. 

Heavy rain events increase during warm periods and decrease during cold periods, according to the scientists in Florida and England who said today that their research is the first to provide observational evidence linking higher temperatures with heavier rains. 

"We use satellite observations and model simulations to examine the response of tropical precipitation events to naturally driven changes in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content," they explained. 

The study focused on changes in sea surface temperatures associated with El Niño, a pattern of warming in the central tropical Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America that results in floods, droughts, and other disturbances around the world. 

El Niño patterns occur at irregular intervals of two to seven years and usually last from one or two years. 

Based on satellite observations combined with data from computer models the scientists found "a distinct link" between tropical rainfall extremes and temperature. 

"A warmer atmosphere contains larger amounts of moisture which boosts the intensity of heavy downpours," said study author Dr. Brian Soden, an associate professor of meteorology and physical oceanography at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Both observations and models indicated an increase in heavy rainstorms in response to a warmer climate, but Soden and his team found the amplification of rainfall extremes observed by satellite was "substantially larger" than that predicted by the computer models. 

This means that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes due to global warming caused by human activities may be underestimated, and future rains may be even heavier than previously thought. 

"Comparing observations with results from computer models improves understanding of how rainfall responds to a warming world," said co-author Dr. Richard Allan of the University of Reading's Environmental Systems Science Centre. 

"Differences can relate to deficiencies in the measurements, or the models used to predict future climatic change," he said. 

Established by the UK's Natural Environment Research Council, ESSC undertakes research into how life, land, oceans, atmosphere and ice sheets interact with each other. 

Soden says the sensitivity of the Earth's climate to an increase in the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide depends on the response of clouds and water vapor. 

"My research strives to better understand the role of atmospheric hydrologic processes in governing climate and climate change through the use of satellite observations and mathematical models of Earth's climate," Soden says on his website. "This research is motivated by the need to better understand how human activities are altering Earth's climate." 

The report, "Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes," is previewed online in "Science Express" today, and set for publication in an upcoming issue of the journal "Science," a publication of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. 

Source: ENS, August 07, 2008
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Indigenous peoples threatened by climate change
World day highlights fundamental role of indigenous peoples in food security

Increasingly tough climatic conditions and limited rights to land and other basic resources risk jeopardizing the lives and livelihoods of many indigenous groups that hold the key to our long term survival, FAO noted today on the eve of the International Day for the World’s Indigenous Peoples.

“Indigenous peoples are among the first to suffer from increasingly harsh and erratic weather conditions, and a generalized lack of empowerment to claim goods and services to which other population groups have greater access,” said Regina Laub, FAO focal point for Indigenous Peoples.

A number of indigenous groups make their living within vulnerable environments -- in mountainous areas, in the Arctic, in jungles or in dry lands -- and are thus often the first to discern and suffer the effects of climate change. 

However, the indigenous are not just victims of global warming; they also have a critical role to play in supporting global adaptation to climate change. In Peru, for example, during the last planting season only those potatoes planted in the traditional way survived the unprecedented extreme frost temperature.

Indigenous communities are often the custodians of unique knowledge and skills and the genetic and biological diversity in plant and animal production that may be vital in adapting to climate change. Approximately 80 percent of the world’s remaining biodiversity is found within indigenous peoples’ territories.

Currently there are an estimated 370 million indigenous peoples representing at least 5 000 different indigenous groups in more than 70 countries. The Amazon basin alone is home to about 400 different indigenous groups. Defending the recovery of ancestral lands, the self-determination of indigenous peoples and their human rights is at the core of their claims.

Indigenous peoples are often among the most marginalized, showing higher levels of poverty and vulnerability than other population groups in Africa, Asia and Latin America.

Land rights

Only a few countries have recognized ancestral and customary rights to land, a cornerstone of the livelihoods of indigenous peoples. Lack of political will and the lack of legal recognition of indigenous rights in national legal frameworks and tenure regimes, different forms of discrimination and inappropriate policies towards indigenous peoples are limiting indigenous peoples’ land rights.

Sub-Saharan Africa

As a result of violent conflicts, increased competition, degradation of natural resources and negative effects of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, land tenure insecurity is growing in Sub-Saharan Africa. This has led to increased vulnerability of rural communities and a high incidence of extreme poverty and hunger. 

FAO has developed activities for improving tenure security of the rural poor including indigenous groups in sub-Saharan Africa by giving disadvantaged groups greater control over decisions, particularly over natural resources, improving the legal capacities of rural poor communities to secure land rights. Better awareness and access to legal information, and creating rural institutions and simplified procedures for securing land and resources tenure are other objectives of FAO’s activities. FAO has documented good practices in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as in the Pacific.

Source: FAONewsroom, August 08, 2008
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Alarming rise in pollution by Asian giants: Study 
G. Chandrashekhar 

Mumbai, Aug. 9 China accounted for a staggering 57 per cent of the growth in carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion worldwide that, between 2000 and 2007, increased 22 per cent to an estimated 8.2 billion tonnes, according to research by the Washington-based think-tank Worldwatch Institute.

During the period, India’s contribution was eight per cent and the US and Europe contributed four per cent and three per cent, respectively. Despite the dramatic rise in China’s fossil fuel emissions, the US is still the leading emitter of carbon dioxide (CO{-2}) from fossil fuels. 

The Americans still outpace the Chinese more than 4 to 1 in terms of per capita emissions, the Institute revealed adding American outpace Indians more than 13 to 1, and Africans 18 to 1. A significant part of China’s energy needs are met by thermal power. 

Coal-dependent development of China is today the major driver of global CO{-2} emission growth. Coal provides as much as 70 per cent of commercial energy in China and 56 per cent in India. 

The combustion of fossil fuels – primarily coal, oil and natural gas – accounts for about 74 per cent of all CO{-2} emissions and for roughly 57 per cent of all greenhouse gas emissions globally.

Kyoto Protocol 

In December 2009, the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change intend to reach agreement on a new climate change protocol to limit carbon emissions, building on the Kyoto Protocol originally signed in 1997. A lot of uncertainty surrounds the new agreement.

Suggesting that regulation of emissions from China and other growing economies would be a contentious issue, the research organisation has recommended an active partnership between industrial and developing countries in order to stabilise the climate.

Growth vs Environment 

The positive correlation between economic growth and pollution is well known. The state of manufacturing technologies is such that growth objectives cannot be achieved without polluting emissions. For emerging economies such as China and India the dilemma is growth versus environment. 

Without growth, it is going to be nearly impossible to fight poverty; and a large number of the world’s poor people live in Asia. 

Source: Business Line, August 09, 2008
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Amazon rainforest threatened by new wave of oil and gas exploration
With over 35 multinational companies racing to tap into oil and gas reserves situated in peak biodiversity, Ian Sample

Vast swathes of the western Amazon are to be opened up for oil and gas exploration, putting some of the planet's most pristine and biodiverse forests at risk, conservationists have warned.

A survey of land earmarked for exploration by energy companies revealed a steep rise in recent years, to around 180 zones, which together cover an area of 688,000 sq km, almost equivalent to the size of Texas.

Detailed mapping of the region shows the majority of planned oil and gas projects, which are operated by at least 35 multinational companies, are in the most species-rich areas of the Amazon for mammals, birds and amphibians.

Researchers used government information on land that has been leased to state or multinational energy companies over the past four years to create oil and gas exploration maps for western Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia and Colombia. The maps showed that in Peru and Ecuador, regions designated for oil and gas projects already cover more than two thirds of the Amazon. Of 64 oil and gas regions that cover 72% of the Peruvian Amazon, all but eight were approved since 2003. Major increases in activity are expected in Bolivia and western Brazil.

"We've been following oil and gas development in the Amazon since 2004 and the picture has changed before our eyes," said Matt Finer of Save America's Forests, a US-based environment group. "When you look at where the oil and gas blocks are, they overlap perfectly on top of the peak biodiversity spots, almost as if by design, and this is in one of the most, if not the most, biodiverse place on Earth."

Some regions have established oil and gas reserves, but in others, companies will need to cut into the forest to conduct speculative tests, including explosive seismic investigations and test drilling. Typically, companies have seven years to explore a region before deciding whether to go into full production.

"The real concern is when exploration is successful and a zone moves into the development phase, because that's when the roads, drilling and pipelines come in," said Finer.

Writing in the journal PLoS One, Finer and others from Duke university in North Carolina and Land is Life, a Massachusetts-based environment group, call for governments to rethink how energy reserves in the Amazon are exploited.

One issue, the authors argue, is that while companies must submit an environmental impact assessment for their project, these are often considered individually instead of collectively. "They're not looking at the bigger picture of what happens if there are lots of projects going on at the same time. 

"You could have each individual company thinking they're being relatively responsible and keeping their own road networks under control and so on, but what happens when you have 15 other projects around you? All of a sudden, when you look at the bigger picture, you have a sprawling road network," said Finer.

The creation of widespread road networks will put previously inaccessible forest at risk of deforestation, illegal hunting and logging, the authors argue. 

The researchers urge companies to adopt a moratorium on new road building, and instead use helicopters to ferry personnel and machinery to and from the sites, as has been done in some locations. They also call for governments to take a broader view of the environmental impacts of new projects, by assessing them as a group rather than individually.

Further research by the team found that many of the planned exploration and extraction projects were on land that is home to indigenous people, who whilst being consulted, have no say in whether a project goes ahead or not. At least 58 of the 64 regions in Peru are on land where isolated communities live, with a further 17 infringing areas that have existing or proposed reserves for indigenous groups.

"The way that oil development is being pursued in the western Amazon is a gross violation of the rights of the indigenous peoples of the region," said Brain Keane of Land is Life. "International agreements and inter-American human rights law recognise indigenous peoples have rights to their lands, and explicitly prohibit the granting of concessions to exploit natural resources in their territories without their free, prior and informed consent," he added.

The report adds that the international community should pay countries in the Amazon to leave forest lands untouched. Ecuador has said it will not develop its largest untapped oil reserve if it receives compensation by the end of the year, an offer that countries have yet to take them up on.

Source: Guardian, August 13, 2008
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Current climate models 'ignoring brown carbon'
Sun Xiaohua and Jia Hepeng

[BEIJING] Scientists have found that air pollution from East Asia contains an abundance of 'brown carbon' particles and say that atmospheric models need updating to incorporate their effect.

Current climate models take into account two types of aerosol carbon — organic carbon and black carbon — that arise from the burning of fossil fuels or biomass. 

Black carbon strongly warms the atmosphere by absorbing light, while organic carbon absorbs light at a negligible level and has no warming effect.

It has already been claimed black carbon plays a much larger role in global warming than estimates made by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (see Black carbon climate danger 'underestimated'). 

But this approximation is too simple, according to Peter Crozier, an associate professor at Arizona State University (ASU) in the United States, whose team published their research in Science last week (8 August).

According to the authors, the method that is currently used to measure the warming effect of different types of particle doesn't take into account the wide variations that can occur between types of carbon from different sources. 

They instead used a technique based on a specialised type of electron microscope to directly determine the optical properties of individual carbon particles, and found that samples taken from above the Yellow Sea, east of China, have an abundance of brown carbon particles. 

"Brown carbon has light absorbing properties that lie between strongly absorbing black carbon and materials that only scatter light and do not absorb," co-author James Anderson, a research scientist at ASU's Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, told SciDev.Net.

He adds that brown carbon both cools the Earth's surface and warms the atmosphere, resulting in a complex role in global warming, hence the necessity to incorporate it into climate models. 

Hu Guoquan, a senior scientist at the Beijing-based National Climate Centre, welcomes the study, saying it highlights the uncertainties of IPCC models.

"But more studies on the chemical structure and size of brown carbon particles must be done," he told SciDev.Net.

In addition, Hu says, as many carbon aerosols pollutants are emitted by China or India — which have massive combustion of fossil fuels and biomass — judging their accurate warming or cooling effect must be done cautiously and avoid claims without sufficient scientific evidence, as this will contribute to determining the nations' responsibilities in global warming.

Source: SciDevNet, August 15, 2008
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Once Rare, Coastal Dead Zones Are Multiplying Worldwide

GLOUCESTER POINT, Virginia, August 15, 2008 (ENS) - Around 1910, when scientists began studying the marine areas of low oxygen known as dead zones, there were only four of them worldwide.

Now, there are 405 dead zones in the world's coastal waters, covering a total area of 95,000 square miles, according to the latest research published today in the journal "Science." 

A global study led by Virginia Institute of Marine Science Professor Robert Diaz shows that the number of dead zones has increased by a third between 1995 and 2007. 

"Dead zones were once rare. Now they're commonplace. There are more of them in more places," Diaz says. Worldwide, the number of dead zones has roughly doubled each decade since the 1960s, his research shows. 

Diaz and collaborator Rutger Rosenberg of the University of Gothenburg in Sweden say that dead zones are now "the key stressor on marine ecosystems" and "rank with over-fishing, habitat loss, and harmful algal blooms as global environmental problems." 

Dead zones occur when excess nutrients, primarily nitrogen and phosphorus, enter coastal waters and help fertilize blooms of algae. When these microscopic plants die and sink to the bottom, they provide a rich food source for bacteria, which in the act of decomposition consume dissolved oxygen from surrounding waters. Major nutrient sources include agricultural fertilizers and the burning of fossil fuels. 

Diaz and Rosenberg write, "There's no other variable of such ecological importance to coastal marine ecosystems that has changed so drastically over such a short time as dissolved oxygen." 

The largest dead zone in the United States today, at the mouth of the Mississippi River, covers more than 8,500 square miles, an area roughly the size of New Jersey. 

A dead zone also underlies much of the main channel of Chesapeake Bay, each summer occupying about 40 percent of its area and up to five percent of its volume. 

Geologic evidence shows that dead zones were not "a naturally recurring event" in Chesapeake Bay or most other estuarine ecosystems, says Diaz. The first dead zone in Chesapeake Bay was reported in the 1930s. 

Scientists refer to water with too little oxygen for fish and other active organisms as "hypoxic." Diaz says that many ecosystems experience a progression in which periodic hypoxic events become seasonal and then, if nutrient inputs continue to increase, persistent. Earth's largest dead zone, in the Baltic Sea, is hypoxic year-round. Chesapeake Bay experiences seasonal, summertime hypoxia through much of its main channel. 

Diaz and Rosenberg note that hypoxia tends to be overlooked until it starts to affect organisms that people eat. A possible indicator of hypoxia's adverse effects on an economically important finfish species in Chesapeake Bay is the link between oxygen-poor bottom waters and a chronic outbreak of a bacterial disease among striped bass. 

Several Chesapeake Bay researchers, including VIMS fish pathologist Wolfgang Vogelbein, believe that the high prevalence of mycobacteriosis, found in more than 75 percent of the Bay stripers, occurs because they are weakened by the stress of encountering the Bay's summertime dead zone.

When the dead zone forms, it forces the stripers from the cooler bottom waters they prefer into warmer waters near the surface. 

Diaz and Rosenberg say an even more fundamental effect of hypoxia is the loss of energy from the Bay's food chain. 

Without bottom-dwellers such as clams and worms, their predators lose an important source of nutrition. 

Diaz and VIMS colleague Linda Schaffner estimate that Chesapeake Bay now loses about five percent of the Bay's total production of food energy to hypoxia each year. 

The Baltic Sea has lost about 30 percent of its food energy, which contributes to the decline in its fisheries yields. 

Diaz and Rosenberg say the key to reducing dead zones is "to keep fertilizers on the land and out of the sea." Farmers concerned with the high cost of buying and applying nitrogen to their crops share that goal.

"They certainly don't want to see their dollars flowing off their fields into the Bay," says Diaz. "Scientists and farmers need to continue working together to develop farming methods that minimize the transfer of nutrients from land to sea." 

Source: ENS, August 15, 2008
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