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Climate Change: Environmental conflicts to increase, Kenyan Don says
George Kebasso
When Ugandan soldiers opened fire on Turkana herdsmen from the neighbouring Kenya who had crossed the borders into their country last Sunday in the eye of diplomats, public servants called it a diplomatic breach but scientists say the aggression is an attribute of the environmental conflicts.
Environmental experts say that armed conflicts would rise in the future to unprecedented levels due to competition for meager natural resources which are already under pressure due to climate change.
As is tradition for nomads, herders migrate in search of pasture and water for their livestock because drought which is dictated largely by climatic variations sets in.
Prof Richard Odingo who has spent 20 years doing research on environmental changes with the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said at the University of Nairobi that the pace for armed conflicts in the developing world would soar as global warming increase due to unchecked anthropogenic activities.
Odingo predicts that both internal and trans-boundary wars on water and other resources will increase unless deliberate collective measures are taken to avert the crisis.“Already there is war in many areas. Look at our border with Somalia, people are always fighting for water, others are fighting because they want grazing land, In fact among them are nomads of the East Africa and even in West Africa. There is always what one can call small scale warfares, “But now in the future even water would be a big problem, we will not have tribal wars, maybe we will have regional warfare, we might even have Somalia coming to attack us because they are looking for water,” Odingo said in his paper : The impact of Climate Change in Africa and its implications for peace and security.
He says that Africa lacks foresight for solutions to the problems of the future. “For example look at the water of River Nile, it is so important for all of us, Egypt also depends on it”, he said.
Odingo warned that if Climate changes continue uninhibited and coupled with the destruction of Mau Forest and other catchment areas, Lake Victoria would automatically be interfered with and this will be a clear recipe for war with the Egyptians.
He thus advises that, “to address such issues, we need to have people we call think tanks in the Office of the President and the Prime Minister’s- preparing papers for the government. We must also have a system where papers are developed- that can be called future studies that detail what we expect in terms of environmental changes.
He warns that in the next two decades, the world would watch the greatest climatic turbulence. “There will be no glaciers left on Mt. Kilimanjaro and equally, Mt. Kenya’s snow capped peak could be completely gone by then.
This would lead to further environmental complications as rivers and springs that flow down from the two continental tourist sites, dry up and increase more competition for water as the number of foreign visitors to these areas decline,” he says.
The scientist is sad that besides presenting a recipe for internal and regional armed conflicts, Climate Change is bound to interrupt economic development in many African countries where by the nature and spread of its impacts will vary from one region to another.
“Already the impacts of climate change are being felt in many African countries as witnessed by frequent droughts and floods,” said Odingo.
But as the professor was warning of the effects of Climate change, the people of North Horr in Northern Kenya are faced with a menace of its own kind.
Strong winds have been blowing in the semi desert region for the last two weeks, resulting in the creation of heaps of sand dunes- both outside and buildings. They have also rendered roads in the area impassable.
Odingo suggested that, special provisions for the people living in marginalised areas – Arid and semi Arid Lands (ASAL) - must be established to answer to their problems which range from scarcity of water and pasture for their animals.
These people are part of the one third of Africa’s population that live in drought-prone areas, and are vulnerable to drought impacts.
Floods like droughts also disrupt economies, both in the ASAL parts of the continent and will result in forced population movements within and across boundaries thereby exacerbating conflict. This situation will be compounded with food shortages which are likely to increase conflicts.
And that is why Odingo criticised the government and writers of the Kenya Vision 2030 for lacking foresight when crafting such an important economic document.
“The Climate resources of Africa are valuable and an essential element for economic growth. Those who plan economic development cannot afford to ignore the climate resources and in the context of this fast moving human-induced climate change, the need to understand its role in economic growth, and for peace, and security is paramount,” warned Odingo in his paper that was positively approved by the guests who attended the public lecture.
Vision 2030 predicts that Kenya would be at par with other world industrial economies in the next twenty two years. But ironically it is this two decades that Odingo also predicts that environmental resources would be under greatest pressure to satisfy the world’s population which is rising steadily.
He faulted the crafters of Vision 2030 for not fully integrating Climate Change into the economic programme raising doubts that the planners will not even be there when the country will be facing water shortages because such scenario has not been factored.
“It is good to write such papers but when you are planning for them where have you placed climate change, where will you be when there will be no water. You will be dead but dead fools” he said of the Vision 2030 planners.
Former National Environment Management Authority Director General, Prof. Ratemo Michieka who attended the meeting backed Odingo’s worries saying, “Due to increased human activities which include; the demand for food, energy, water and anything that can enhance livelihood, climate change has become frequent.”And this is the reason why other scientists including; Prof. Elias Ayiemba, the Chairman of the Geography and Environmental Studies at the UON and Emily Massawa at NEMA’s Department of Adaptation, think that man has become his own enemy for devastatingly reaping without creating solutions for replacement.
Subsequent to such competition, peace and tranquility in the world have been pushed to the dead end and now scientists believe that these activities are catalysts for pollution of the environment from industrial production, green house farming and increased motor transport.
The results, according to Michieka, as people compete for the economic gains and survival as they seek for livelihood is the increase in global warming due to pollution of the atmosphere that generates climate change.
Source: Africa Science News Service, August 19, 2008
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